transition 101
Click here to access a PDF with all the combined myths.
The energy transition is accelerating more rapidly than anyone predicted. Between 2010 and 2022, the cost of solar, wind, heat pumps, and batteries fell by 80% on average. According to an Oxford University study, a rapid transition to 100% clean energy would save the global economy $12 trillion by 2070. These dynamics suggest that the rise of clean energy will displace most future demand growth for fossil fuels. Electricity has overtaken oil as the world’s primary carrier of useful energy, and rates of electrification are only accelerating. Today’s growth rates for the deployment of renewable technologies and electric vehicles are already outpacing the rate of change required by the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net Zero by 2050 scenario. Geopolitical developments will intensify these dynamics; the “energy trilemma” has been solved, as governments are realizing that investments in clean energy can reduce energy costs, promote energy security, and advance climate action simultaneously. Major energy-importing regions, particularly the EU and China, have an economic and geopolitical interest to move away from fossil fuels as quickly as possible. Considering these trends, the IEA projects that fossil fuel demand will all peak this decade, even without any new climate policies. In the IEA’s net-zero scenario, demand for fossil fuels declines by 80% by 2050, the sole path which ensures a liveable future for humanity within a 1.5 degree temperature threshold.
For more information, see our mythbusting report.
The energy transition is accelerating regardless of what happens in Canada, and Canada is already falling behind. Without urgent action, studies show that Canada’s economy could face up to $100 billion in stranded assets in the oil and gas sector by as early as 2036. According to the Canadian Climate Institute, 70% of Canada’s goods exports and 60% of our foreign direct investment derive from sectors that are vulnerable to the energy transition. As a high-cost producer with emissions-intensive fuels, Canadian producers will be hit by two major economic tailwinds: a loss of markets, and low and volatile prices. Conversely, the transition to a low-carbon economy has the potential to bring many benefits; in a net-zero scenario, the GDP of Canada’s clean energy sector would grow by a factor of six, creating more than 2.2 million clean energy jobs. Additionally, the upfront costs of the energy transition pale in comparison to the overall costs of climate disruption; a recent study estimated that climate change will cause $99 trillion in global economic damages between 2025 and 2050, if rapid action is not taken. Other studies suggest that a 3.7°C temperature increase could cause $551 trillion in damage, which is more than all the wealth that currently exists in the world.
For more information, see our mythbusting report.
While the fossil fuel industry claims that it is a major source of wealth for this country, there are many ways in which the sector worsens inequality, takes money from the public, and imposes long-term costs on taxpayers. Profits in the O&G industry have increased over 1,000% since 2019, the majority of which was spent on share buybacks. Although fossil fuel CEOs earn an average compensation of $13.4 million, Alberta alone lost 20,000 fossil fuel jobs between 2019 and 2022, despite the industry experiencing record earnings. Of every dollar of inflation experienced over the last two years, 25 cents have gone to O&G and mining profits. Most of these profits leave Canada; in 2018, 77% of corporations on the board of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers were foreign-owned. Public revenues from the industry have only declined, with royalties and corporate taxes paid by the industry to Canadian federal and provincial governments decreasing by 63% and 50% from 2000 to 2016, even while oil sands production rose 75% over that same period. Between 2018 and 2020, Canada provided 14.5 times more support to fossil fuels than to renewable energy, and between 2015 and 2019 the Canadian government provided over $100 billion to the industry. Meanwhile, taxpayers are saddled with the long-term costs of extraction, including $260 billion in clean-up costs, an amount which pales in comparison to $5.5 trillion in potential climate-related damages.
For more information, see our mythbusting report.
Canadian fossil fuel companies frequently claim they are more environmentally and socially responsible than foreign producers. In reality, Canadian fuels are among the highest-emitting in the world; oil sands production is roughly twice as emissions-intensive as the production of conventional light crude. This is one of the reasons why the oil and gas sector remains the largest contributor to rising emissions in Canada, even as other sectors decarbonize. A recent study found that the sector releases up to 6,400% more air pollution than it self-reports. The industry’s unconventional extraction methods also require significant quantities of toxic chemicals, which accumulate in massive pools called “tailings ponds.” These ponds contain 1.4 trillion litres of toxic fluids, leaking about 11 million litres into the surrounding environment every day. These damages disproportionately affect Indigenous communities, with a recent Imperial Oil leak leeching 5.3 million litres of toxic water into the lands of the Mikisew Cree, Athabasca Chipewyan, and other nations. These communities were not informed about the leak until at least 9 months after it began. Other frequent infringements on human rights and Indigenous rights include displacement, violations of consent, negative health impacts, cultural disruptions, sexual violence, and more.
For more information, see our mythbusting report.
The UN Secretary-General has accused fossil fuel companies of using “bogus net-zero pledges” to delay the transition away from fossil fuels. Now that climate denial is no longer credible, fossil fuel companies have shifted to a new strategy: claiming that they are working towards net-zero emissions while simultaneously 1) investing in fossil fuel expansion, 2) using false promises of carbon capture and storage to prolong the life of fossil fuels, and 3) lobbying against strong climate policies. In Canada, the Pathways Alliance represents the largest oil producers which collectively claim to be “on a path to reach net-zero emissions from operations.” In reality, though, the sector’s emissions are increasing rather than decreasing. Moreover, these net-zero targets do not include the emissions associated with the actual combustion and use of fossil fuels (also called Scope 3 emissions), which account for around 88% of total emissions in the sector on average. Canadian producers are on track to increase their oil and gas production by 14% and 29% respectively between 2022 and 2030, even though the International Energy Agency has determined that there should be no fossil fuel expansion projects after 2021. Most fossil fuel companies plan to meet their emissions targets by investing in large carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects; however, carbon capture in the energy supply sector is known to increase emissions, increase fuel extraction through enhanced oil recovery, and worsen carbon lock-in. A report by the Energy Transitions Commission aimed to “dispel the notion that CCUS and carbon removals justify business as usual for fossil fuel production.”
For more information, see our mythbusting report.
Indigenous peoples have the right to freely pursue their economic development and to determine and develop priorities for the use of their lands, territories, or other resources, including fossil fuels. The right to self-determination is an inherent and internationally recognized right of Indigenous peoples that has been denied under colonialism, creating systemic conditions of economic marginalization for many Indigenous communities. After several generations of exploitation of their territories and resources by the fossil fuel industry, oil and gas projects are now being pitched as vital economic lifelines that could deliver lasting prosperity to Indigenous communities. Whether or not new fossil fuel projects really can deliver economic growth for Indigenous communities (and the dubious long-term outlook for fossil fuels suggests otherwise), the right of Indigenous peoples to free, prior, and informed consent must be upheld. Reconciliation with Indigenous peoples unequivocally requires economic shifts to the status quo, especially to the entrenched denial of Indigenous rights endemic to Canada’s natural resource regime. As long as colonial governments remain the ultimate arbiters of Indigenous peoples’ resources and FPIC isn’t required for projects to go ahead, it is possible that economic reconciliation will fall short of the minimum standards laid out in the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.
For more information, see our mythbusting report.
*Written in collaboration with Josh Kioke
The energy transition is happening ahead of schedule, and a massive boom in clean energy investment is accelerating a new industrial revolution. Solar energy investments have reached more than $1 billion per day, surpassing annual investments in upstream oil production for the first time in 2023. Solar capacity additions increased by nearly 50% last year, and are outpacing the rate projected in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net Zero by 2050 scenario. Renewable electricity has become the cheapest power source in most regions, and is on track to account for 90% of global electricity expansion over the next five years, overtaking coal by 2025. Renewable power presents a superior risk-return profile, generating 422.7% returns over the last decade as compared to just 59% for traditional energy. Demand for electric cars is also exploding, with sales rising by more than one-third in 2023, and investment in EVs has doubled since 2021 to reach $130 billion last year. Combustion vehicle sales peaked globally in 2017 and are now in permanent decline. All of these trends imply that the growth of the clean energy economy will only accelerate. In a net-zero scenario, the GDP of Canada’s clean energy sector would grow by a factor of six, contributing to widespread prosperity. For more information, see our mythbusting report.
For more information, see our mythbusting report.
It is not true that renewables and electric vehicles are unreliable, inefficient, or prohibitively expensive. In fact, an energy system dominated by renewables has the potential to deliver many benefits. While fossil fuels face increasing costs of extraction over time, renewables have benefited from a virtuous cycle of declining costs and improved performance that has turbocharged their growth. A key metric used to express the efficiency of energy technologies is “energy return on investment” (EROI), which has declined by 23% for fossil fuels over a 16 year period. Solar, wind, and hydropower all have an EROI that is now greater than that of petroleum oil. It is also untrue that the intermittency of renewable power increases grid instability. The introduction of distributed energy resources and other grid flexibility solutions can help improve reliability, reduce costs, and decarbonize the grid simultaneously. In reality, the biggest driver of grid instability is the poor performance of gas fleets during extreme weather events. Power outages have doubled over the past 20 years due to the worsening effects of climate change. The transition to electric vehicles will also bring economic benefits, as the long-term costs of owning an EV are significantly lower than ICE vehicles given how much drivers save on gas prices and maintenance costs. The average range for an EV sold in the US is 300 miles, which is comparable to a gasoline-powered car. For more information, see our mythbusting report.
For more information, see our mythbusting report.
Employment in the clean economy has been growing significantly in recent years, and will only continue to rise. In the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net Zero scenario, clean energy investments would create 30 million new jobs globally by 2030, more than compensating for the five million jobs that would be lost in the fossil fuel sector. These jobs also come with better pay; research shows that jobs in wind and solar offer respectively 37% and 28% higher salaries than the median wage. Across Canada, clean energy jobs are set to grow 7% per year, reaching 2.7 million jobs by 2050. In contrast, direct employment in the fossil fuel sector in Canada is already quite low, typically representing less than 1% of total employment. Fossil fuel jobs are already in decline; between 2014 and 2019 the oil and gas industry in Canada eliminated 53,000 jobs, and between 2019 and 2022 another 20,000 positions disappeared in Alberta alone despite the industry experiencing record profits. There is now a push to automate the industry, which fossil fuel executives call “de-manning” the oil sands. Other labour issues plaguing the sector include falling wages, insecurity through gig work, large unfunded pension liabilities, high average fatality rates, and deunionization. To manage the decline of the industry, we need a just transition to renewable energy that benefits workers over shareholders. For more information, see our mythbusting report.
For more information, see our mythbusting report.
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Fossil Fuel Influence
re•generation is a Canadian youth-led nonprofit empowering the next generation of leaders to re•think how the economy can better serve human and ecological well-being. We aim to help students and young professionals find clean careers and take action in their schools or organizations. Our team consists of 11 young people who have come together to realize our vision of a better future. You can learn more in the ‘About Us’ section of our website.
We are always looking to connect with impact-minded young people who are looking to make change in their schools, communities, or companies! If you’d like to get more involved with re•generation’s work, please reach out to our Director of Research & Campaigns at chris@re-generation.ca.
We are currently hosting our first ‘Clean Economy Ambassador’ program, a national network of students and young professionals sharing knowledge and building connections to advance the just transition to a clean economy. We will be launching another round of applications later this year, so sign up for our newsletter to stay in the loop!
Every job should be a climate job, and all employees have a role to play. If you are an employee who is looking to make change but don’t know where to begin, re•generation can help support you.
We are able to provide confidential one-on-one coaching, resources, and training to help anyone make change within their organization. If this would be helpful to you, please reach out to advocate@re-generation.ca with your specific request.
Our Employee Advocacy Toolkit (pages 1-9) includes an accessible, curated list of strategies and resources to help you in your changemaking journey. The Toolkit also includes detailed issue-specific guides along four key themes: ecological well-being, human well-being, business ethics, and business models and governance.
If you believe that your employer is engaging in unethical behaviour, or behaviour that is environmentally or socially damaging, we can help you navigate this difficult situation.
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Greenwashing occurs when companies overstate or misrepresent their sustainability credentials in order to appear like they are doing more than they are. The UN High-Level Expert Group on Net-Zero Commitments has developed definitive technical guidelines to determine whether a “net-zero” commitment is genuine or not.
Many net-zero commitments risk greenwashing if they are not backed up by meaningful actions, clear interim plans, and transparent reporting. To be truly net-zero, companies need to be reducing emissions on a science-aligned timeline, and raising support for clean energy while phasing out fossil fuels (also known as “deep decarbonization”). This must be done in a way which respects human rights and Indigenous rights, does not destroy habitats, and does not rely on carbon offsets or negative emissions technologies in lieu of real emissions reductions. For a comprehensive checklist, see this report by ActionAid.
Greenwashing can look different for different sectors. For a fossil fuel company, it might involve claiming to be net-zero while using speculative carbon capture technologies to justify investing in fossil fuel expansion (see this Greenpeace guide). For a bank, it might mean reclassifying loans as ‘ESG’ or ‘green’ while still giving billions of dollars to the fossil fuel industry. For a consulting firm, it might mean claiming to be net-zero by purchasing offsets while continuing to provide high-level strategic advice to clients that are expanding fossil fuel production.
Greenwashing is increasingly being outlawed. A new AI tool known as ChatReport allows users to quickly assess greenwashing by uploading corporate sustainability reports (though it requires fact-checking). This tool is based on the red flag indicators developed by the Oxford Sustainable Finance Group.
re•generation’s Employee Advocacy Toolkit compiles many anti-greenwashing tools and resources over a large range of issues. This report from the Centre for Building Sustainable Value provides an integrated framework for assessing green claims or labels. To learn more about greenwashing and how to identify it, take this course developed by Creatives for Climate or check out their Greenwash Watch toolkit.
To learn more about how to evaluate greenwashing in each of our four demands (RAISE, REDUCE, RESPECT, RESTORE), see the following six questions listed on this FAQ document.
The clean economy refers to an economic system that prioritizes sustainability, health, and wellbeing for both people and the planet. In our campaign, we identify seven key sectors of the clean economy: Clean Energy, Ecosystem Restoration, Sustainable Food Systems, Impact Investing, Sustainable Mobility, Green Infrastructure, and Circular Economy.
Project Drawdown and Regeneration are two resource hubs with comprehensive descriptions of the solutions that are required to meet global climate goals. Check out our ‘Discover Clean Careers’ tab to find additional resources and opportunities to get involved in each sector.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) states that global annual clean energy investment will need to more than triple to $4 trillion by 2030 if we are to meet global climate goals. At a minimum, “raising support for clean energy” means tripling spending on renewable energy and doubling spending on energy efficiency, in line with the Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge announced at the 2023 global climate summit.
“Clean energy” is a contested term. The IEA’s definition of clean energy includes the following technologies: wind power, solar power, hydropower, marine power, geothermal, solid biomass, bioenergy, waste-to-energy, nuclear, hydrogen, and fossil fuels with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). re•generation departs from this definition by excluding all forms of energy that are derived from hydrocarbons, including fossil fuels with CCUS and “blue hydrogen” (which is hydrogen derived from natural gas, coupled with CCUS). There are numerous reasons why fossil fuels with CCUS should not be considered a form of “clean energy”, given that they are often net-CO2 additive, can increase fossil fuel production, and can worsen carbon lock-in or delay the energy transition. For more information about this issue, see Myth #5 on our ‘Debunk Fossil Fuel Myths’ tab.
There are many risks associated with over-investing in hydrogen production. While hydrogen can be a non-emitting fuel source for sectors that are hard to electrify (such as steel or shipping), hydrogen can only be sustainable if it is “green hydrogen”, or hydrogen that is produced through the electrolysis of water using only renewable electricity. Green hydrogen is very expensive to produce, and represents just 0.04% of global hydrogen production. Blue hydrogen, whereas, has been shown to have a substantially higher greenhouse gas footprint than burning gas, coal or diesel oil for heating. Despite intensive lobbying by the fossil fuel industry, the role of hydrogen in the clean energy transition is limited.
There are also major limitations to the use of biomass or biofuels as a clean energy source. Research about the emissions intensity of biofuels is often conflicting, although it is acknowledged that second generation biofuels (i.e. biofuels from waste biomass) have the potential to reduce emissions. The combustion of solid biomass (logs, wood chips or pellets) emits large quantities of carbon, potentially between 3% and 50% more than coal. Most ethanol production is currently made from plant starches and sugars, which raises equity and sustainability concerns about land use, biodiversity loss, and the displacement of food production. Most importantly, naturally growing forests should under no circumstances be harvested to create biofuels. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has numerous feasibility and sustainability concerns; it has never been proven on a commercial scale, and offsetting only a third of today’s fossil fuel emissions through BECCS would require using half of the world’s total crop-growing area. Accordingly, BECCS should not be relied on as a negative emissions technology.
The EU Taxonomy is a classification system that outlines which economic activities can be considered “green” or not, based on screening criteria that are derived from scientific recommendations. This Taxonomy calculator includes a searchable database of all eligible activities, with further information about their green attributes. To see more about what individual financial institutions are doing to advance the transition, see the following databases:
- Reclaim Finance - Sustainability Policy Tracker
- Bloomberg - Financing the Transition Report
- Corporate Knights - 2022 Sustainable Banking Revenues
To learn more about different proposed clean energy solutions, see the following Clean Energy Technology Guide by the IEA, or this report by the Exponential Roadmap Initiative.
In May of 2021, the International Energy Agency announced that no new oil, gas and coal projects can be approved if the world is to reach net zero emissions by 2050 while limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C as determined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. This threshold is the maximum temperature increase we can sustain without causing large-scale and irreversible damage to the Earth and human society.
Fossil fuel expansion is considered to be any new project that increases the extraction of oil, coal or gas with an investment decision made after December 31st, 2021. Fossil fuel phase-out is the deliberate and planned reduction of fossil fuels, with the goal of replacing these energy sources with renewable energy. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), coal, oil, and gas are required to decrease by 95%, 60%, and 45%, respectively, by 2050 relative to 2019 levels. Over 200+ global companies representing $1.5 trillion in annual revenue have called for fossil fuel phase-out as part of the We Mean Business coalition.
The global carbon budget is the total amount of fossil fuels that we can safely burn to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees. To track individual fossil fuel projects which are overshooting the global carbon budget, see the Global Registry of Fossil Fuels and the Carbon Bombs Database. To track how fossil fuel companies are investing in expansion, see the “IEA NZE expansion overshoot” column of the data from the Global Oil and Gas Exit List and the Global Coal Exit List.
To learn more about how individual financial institutions rank on their fossil fuel investments, see the following databases:
- Rainforest Action Network - Banking on Climate Chaos Report 2023
- Urgewald - Investing in Climate Chaos 2023
- Reclaim Finance - Oil and Gas Policy Tracker
- Reclaim Finance - Coal Policy Tracker
- Insure Our Future - 2022 Scorecard
- Private Equity Climate Risks - Private Equity Energy Tracker
- Carbon Tracker - Net Zero Finance Report Card
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has determined that in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions need to peak before 2025 at the latest and be reduced by 43% by 2030. To achieve this, all businesses, financial institutions, and governments must adopt climate transition plans which are aligned with science.
The UN High-Level Expert Group on Net-Zero Commitments has developed the definitive technical guidelines for what constitutes a credible climate transition plan. Over 13,000 organizations have joined the UN Race to Zero initiative, which has established robust criteria and leadership principles for all members. Private sector organizations should set targets in line with the recommendations of the Science-Based Targets Initiative, which has determined that all firms should on average be reducing their emissions by 4.2-6% annually.
The We Mean Business coalition has developed a framework called the 4 A’s of Climate Leadership, listing key actions which companies must take to be considered climate leaders. Adopting a climate action transition plan includes four central components: an emissions reduction plan across the value chain; integration into business strategy and governance; advocacy for public policy; and a focus on a just transition (see this checklist). Check out the 1.5 Degree Business Playbook by the Exponential Roadmap Initiative for other actionable strategies.
Companies must not rely excessively on carbon offsets, carbon credits, negative emissions technologies, or carbon removal technologies as a substitute for real emissions reductions. A credible offsetting strategy should only be used as a last resort, and should align with the Oxford Principles for Net-Zero Aligned Offsetting.
Companies must lobby for progressive climate policies, and abide by the Global Standard on Responsible Climate Lobbying. This means exiting trade associations which obstruct climate action, and actively advocating for strong regulations to accelerate the energy transition. For more information, see the work of ClimateVoice or InfluenceMap.
Corporations must also commit to a just transition for all workers and communities. For more information, see the just transition resource platform developed by the We Mean Business coalition.
For more information about the performance of individual companies, see the following databases:
Indigenous rights are collective rights that are held by Indigenous peoples and stem from their ongoing occupation and use of their territories. The rights of Indigenous peoples received international recognition and affirmation when the United Nations General Assembly adopted the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP), which the Government of Canada passed legislation to adopt in 2021. Neither the United Nations nor Canada bestowed Indigenous people with rights - the rights of Indigenous peoples are inherent and co-constitute each Indigenous group's unique social and political structures.
Indigenous sovereignty is the authority of Indigenous political and legal institutions to make decisions within their territory. Indigenous sovereignty is often contested by the competing claims of a colonial government. Canada's assertion of sovereignty over areas in which Indigenous groups already have sovereignty creates greater uncertainty in a number of areas, including the governance of natural resource development. The issues stemming from overlapping assertions of sovereignty over Indigenous peoples' territories are ongoing and unresolved.
The right to Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC) is a minimum framework for how the rights of Indigenous peoples must be upheld with respect to corporate activity on Indigenous lands. The 92nd Call to Action identified by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission includes the following provision: “We call upon the corporate sector in Canada to adopt the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples as a reconciliation framework and to apply its principles, norms, and standards to corporate policy and core operational activities involving Indigenous peoples and their lands and resources.”
For further information, see the following papers:
- Yellowhead Institute - Land Back: A Yellowhead Institute Red Paper
- Union of BC Indian Chiefs - Consent Paper
- Oxfam International - Consent is Everybody’s Business
*Written in collaboration with Josh Kioke
The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework outlines a new global target to restore 30% of all degraded ecosystems and conserve 30% of land, water, and seas by 2030. The UN Decade on Restoration began in 2021, calling on corporations and governments to prevent, halt and reverse the degradation of ecosystems.
Companies must stop engaging in or enabling activities which contribute to habitat loss, deforestation, or land degradation. The Science-Based Targets Network aims to help organizations set concrete goals and targets for reversing nature loss. UN Race to Zero calls on its members to achieve deforestation-free supply chains by 2025, and the UN High-Level Expert Group requires “eliminating deforestation and peatland loss by 2025 at the latest, and the conversion of other remaining natural ecosystems by 2030.”
The Accountability Framework Initiative provides a roadmap for achieving ethical supply chains in a way that protects forests and human rights. Their Deforestation Risk Toolset helps organizations track supply chain exposure to deforestation. The Science-Based Targets Initiative has also developed guidance on Forests, Land, and Agriculture (FLAG) specifically for land-intensive industries. Global Forest Watch and Trase.Earth provide real-time data to help organizations trace and limit deforestation.
Corporations can also reverse nature loss by supporting natural climate solutions. However, corporations should not seek to convert ecosystems or ecosystem services into “nature-based assets” that can be bought or sold like any other commodity, or rely on dangerous schemes like “biodiversity offsetting.” To read more about the dangers of financializing nature, see our article on nature-based solutions. For further information, check out the guidance principles on nature-based climate solutions developed by the We Mean Business Coalition, as well as their nature-based solutions resource hub.
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